A Deadly Dilemma: Pakistan after Benazir

“There is no law and certainly, no order in my country. What happened last week has shaken every Pakistani. Benzir Bhutto was no ordinary person; she served as prime minister twice and returned to Pakistan in an effort to restore democracy in our country. In her assassination, I have lost a friend and a partner in democracy.”

These are the words of Nawaz Sharif, president of PML(N) and Benazir’s arch political rival in Pakistan, which speaks volumes about the turmoil created in Pakistan following Benazir’s assassination last December. Benazir, for all her flaws, had always been seen as a liberal force with a democratic vision for her country. Undeterred by the security threats, her return to Pakistan showed her determination to move Pakistan towards a democratic future. Her assassination has created a vacuum that has made Pakistani politics murkier, more volatile and unpredictable. It undermines the credibility of President Musharraf, who faces widespread resentment over his recent imposition of emergency. It’s setback to the U.S. design of establishing a democratic government under Musharraf, which will lend some credibility to the present military regime. Above all, Benazir’s murder has implications for the unity of Pakistan.

The adulatory public response that greeted Benazir on her return had given the world community hope that exists in Pakistan a large constituency for the restoration of democracy. The U.S. had intended that she would become prime minister under Musharraf to create a military-backed popular political front to contain the growing fundamentalist forces in the country. Seeing the rising unpopularity of Musharraf, his confrontation with the judiciary, which finally led to the imposition of emergency, and the growing wave of anti-Americanism in Pakistan, the U.S. was desperate to put a democratic government in place. After Benazir’s assassination, these hopes have been dashed and Pakistan’s very future is at stake. But it’s the people of Pakistan who are the ultimate victims of these developments. They suffered the loss of a popular leader in 1977 when Zia-ul-Haq toppled Zulfikar Bhutto’s government, they witnessed another military coup in Musharraf’s takeover of power from Nawaz Sharif’s elected government, and they the real victims of Benazir’s murder.

With the death of Benazir, the people of Pakistan face renewed uncertainty. Her demise has created a leadership crisis in the Pakistan People’s Party, the country’s only pan-national party. While Asif Ali Zardari, Benazir’s widower who was nicknamed Mr. Ten percent for his alleged record of corruption while his wife was in office, doesn’t have the political muscle or moral stature to command public support, Benazir’s son Bilawal at 19 is too young and inexperienced to shoulder the responsibility. Though there is wide public support for PPP and the next election scheduled for February may see the party emerge victorious, it is questionable whether PPP can lay out a roadmap for full democracy in Pakistan in Benazir’s absence. According to reports, the U.S. finalized a deal to sell F-16 fighter planes with Musharraf just two days after Benazir’s death. It suggests that the US still sees Musharraf as its best bet in their war against terror. The
Americans have their own logic as they fear that in the absence of Musharraf and the military in control, Pakistan’s nuclear wealons may fall into the hands of Islmaic radicals.
The reasoning is not completely irrational. In the last six decades, Pakistan’s military is not only core component of the political and economic system but has grown into a state within a state. Dr. Ayesha Sidique, a military analyst describes in her book “Military Inc.” Pakistan military has permeated every aspect of the Pakistani economy. The military has a presence in the steel, sugar, cement, fertilizer and cereal industries with large stakes in the financial sector as well. It underscores the near impossibility of rooting the military out of economic and political power in Pakistan. In the circumstances, any hope of a Pakistan under complete civilian control can remain just that - a hope, particularly when the country has lost its most popular and charismatic leader.

With the demise of Benazir; Islamic fundamentalism will gather more force inside the country. With all kinds of conspiracy theories about the assassination doing the rounds, there is a strong likelihood that fundamentalist forces, who saw her as a potential threat to their designs, might have eliminated Benazir. They may now succeed in expanding their base in Sindh and Baluchistan, two provinces where people feel neglected due to the dominance of Punjab in Pakistani politics and the army. The murder of Benazir, who hailed from Sindh province, may add to this frustration, stoking the flames of Sindhi nationalism.

The uncertainties of Pakistani politics have expectedly impacted the economy. The Karachi stock market plummeted by nearly 5% on December 31 indicating investors fears over the possibility of a prolonged political impasse hurting Pakistan’s economic growth prospects. Pakistan registered 7.9% GDP growth in 2006-07, according to the government’s economic survey and the KSE has been one of Asia’st-performing stock markets in recent years. The widespread rioting that followed Benazir’s demise when cost the economy several billion dollars in property damage and lost business. But it is the poor, who will suffer the most. Battered by rising inflation (9.3% according to Asian Development Bank Report-2006), continued business uncertainty will only render their jobs, and livelihoods, ever more precarious.

Sadly, all these developments have revived fears that Pakistan could become a failed state. Its suspension from the Commonwealth, the presence of a foreign investigative agency to probe Benazir’s death and the constant fear of a spillover of the US campaign against the Taliban into its North West province all call into question the very sovereignty of the nation. As the destinies of the countries in South Asia are intertwined, Benazir’s assassination will have negative impact on the whole region. This is evident from the reactions of neighbouring India and Afganistan. AS the country plunges into a deeper crisis, Pakistan will find itself alienated from the international community, including from regional grouping like SAARC, OIC etc.

Pakistan’s predicament is the consequence of endemic corruption in public life, the cynicism and violence it breeds, the enduring power of the landowning elites, the repeated imposition of martial law to restore order, the use of non-state actors as instruments of foreign policy and the rise of armed Islamic militias who seek to impose their medieval vision of society as the solution to Pakistan’s myriad problems.

Pakistan could thus be on the brink of civil war. But, just like every cloud has a silver lining, there is still hope for Pakistan. This lies in the sustained struggle for democracy led by the middle class intelligentsia. Encouraged by judicial activism with former chief justice Iftikhar Choudhary in the vanguard, this movement has sustained itself through the country’s most difficult times. Led by the legal community, NGOs and human rights activists like Asma Jahangir, today’s struggle reflects the determination of ordinary Pakistani people to free themselves of this dangerous circle of violence. In the end it is democracy, the rule of law and economic policies that promote equitable growth that will break this deadly cycle. Despite her shabby record in office it was this vision of a better, more humane Pakistan that inspired Benazir to return from exile. Her violent death only underscores the urgency of that message.